Geopolitical crisis still remains on the cards for gold

Gold has been a major beneficiary of a weak dollar and low US interest rates over the last three weeks and this looks likely to change in the short-term. The yield on the 10-year US benchmark is nearing 1%, up from 0.65% a week ago, dulling the appeal of the precious metal, while the US dollar basket may have found a temporary base around 96.50 after having fallen by four big figures since mid-May. Bullion has seen the biggest fall of about 3% last week, since the week ending March 13.

The dip in the gold prices by 2% on Friday had risen the hopes of investors for a rebound in the economy. However, the reduced demand for the safe haven asset gold was due the boost received from the U.S in the form of non-farm payrolls data.

RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited opines that a record surge in US employment on Friday sent gold into a tail spin and back to lows seen at the beginning of May. Just over 2.5 million jobs were added in May compared to market expectations of 8 million lost jobs, the largest month of job creation since the data series began. Last month the US economy lost just over 20 million jobs. Today’s positive data boost added to an already upbeat market tone and helped push gold back into the early $1,680s, its lowest level since May 2.

The coronavirus pandemic has caused the world economy to slow down including the U.S. Economists had already predicted a job loss of 8 million in May and with the pay rolls out, this analysis has so far come to be true. 

The report also jarred with separate data released a day earlier by the Labour Department, which said it received weekly unemployment claims for the first time from 1.9 million Americans, bringing to nearly 43 million the number receiving jobless insurance since the Covid-19 hit home in March. Gold prices jumped 1% on Thursday, reacting to the jobless claims numbers.

We had significantly stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll numbers – an increase of 2.5 million versus an expectation of a decline of 7.5 million – that 10-million swing has brought forward expectations of the economic recovery in the United States.

A kick-start to another rally in the gold price remains elusive. The market’s confidence that the most acute stage of the pandemic has passed in many countries has seen risk appetite improve. With investors now betting stimulus measures will bridge the gap to more normal growth. RSBL is positive and has hopes pinned to an improved economy.

The central bank has injected massive stimulus and cut interest rates to near zero to cushion the blow from the coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury and Congress have jointly approved and disbursed trillions of dollars in loans, grants and outright aid to businesses and individuals in recent months because of the Covid-19-triggered economic downturn.

But investors still remain bullish over the medium-term. Prithviraj Kothari and many other top gold dealers in India believe that Gold might not get much more support from the Fed, but geopolitical risks, second wave concerns, and an eventually weaker U.S. dollar should keep the longer-term bullish outlook intact The macro backdrop is challenging, despite market confidence in the trend towards normalised growth. The expansion of central banks’ balance sheets shows no sign of abating, while geopolitical tensions escalate.

The U.S economy received setbacks not only from the mounting death numbers from corona virus but also through the nationwide protests that has sweeped the nation into a full momentum taking markets by surprise. It is for this reason that gold is rallying right alongside an equities market. However, analysts remained positive about the upward trend of gold despite the risk rally in stocks.

The reason being uncertainty- geopolitical issues and trade tensions (in the U.S) still remain on the cards and for the longer term these factors will definitely influence gold prices positively and those who strongly believe this and are still favouring gold are expected to benefit in the long run.

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